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Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Anderlecht
Anderlecht
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Beerschot VA
Beerschot VA
10/24/2021Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 12Lotto Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Anderlecht60%
×Draw21%
Beerschot VA19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anderlecht
2.05
Beerschot VA
1.04

Anderlecht creates 97% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 54 away

creates per match

Anderlecht
1.81
Beerschot VA
1.07

allows per match

Anderlecht
1.02
Beerschot VA
2.30

finishing

Anderlecht+0.00on par
Beerschot VA+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

Beerschot VA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw
81%
Anderlecht or Beerschot VA
79%
Draw or Beerschot VA
40%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+
37%
Beerschot VA wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals
87%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
61%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
33%
Beerschot VA 1+ goals
65%
Beerschot VA 2+ goals
28%
Beerschot VA 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)
76%
Beerschot VA (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.02 · 150 matches

Beerschot VA away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.30 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.81 + Beerschot VA defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.05

Beerschot VA attack 1.07 + Anderlecht defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Anderlecht scores more
60%
level
21%
Beerschot VA scores more
19%

Anderlecht at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA

Anderlecht beat Beerschot VA 4-2 in Jupiler Pro League on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Lotto Park in Brussel.