Bechem United 0–0 Asante Kotoko: Result & Stats

Bechem United

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Asante Kotoko

4/6/2024

Premier League · Round 24Bechem Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Bechem United47%

×Draw32%

Asante Kotoko21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bechem UnitedExpected goals in this matchAsante Kotoko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.63

Bechem United

1.11

Asante Kotoko

0.63

Bechem United creates 76% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 109 away

1.36

creates per match

0.84

0.41

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Bechem United

1.36

Asante Kotoko

0.84

allows per match

Bechem United

0.41

Asante Kotoko

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bechem United+0.00on par

Asante Kotoko+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bechem United ↓

Asante Kotoko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–111%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Bechem United or draw

79%

Bechem United or Asante Kotoko

68%

Draw or Asante Kotoko

53%

Winning margin

Bechem United wins by 2+

20%

Asante Kotoko wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bechem United 1+ goals

67%

Bechem United 2+ goals

30%

Bechem United 3+ goals

10%

Asante Kotoko 1+ goals

47%

Asante Kotoko 2+ goals

13%

Asante Kotoko 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Bechem United (draw refunded)

69%

Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bechem United at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.41 · 109 matches

Asante Kotoko away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.87 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bechem United attack 1.36 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.11

Asante Kotoko attack 0.84 + Bechem United defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bechem United scores more

47%

level

32%

Asante Kotoko scores more

21%

Bechem United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bechem United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff