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Be1 NFA vs Banga II — 1 Lyga 2026

Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Banga II
Banga II
8/9/20241 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 18Jonavos centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Be1 NFA59%
×Draw22%
Banga II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Be1 NFA
1.92
Banga II
1.00

Be1 NFA creates 92% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 43 away

creates per match

Be1 NFA
1.71
Banga II
0.95

allows per match

Be1 NFA
1.06
Banga II
2.12

finishing

Be1 NFA+0.00on par
Banga II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Be1 NFA ↓

Banga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Be1 NFA or draw
81%
Be1 NFA or Banga II
78%
Draw or Banga II
41%

Winning margin

Be1 NFA wins by 2+
35%
Banga II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Be1 NFA 1+ goals
85%
Be1 NFA 2+ goals
57%
Be1 NFA 3+ goals
30%
Banga II 1+ goals
63%
Banga II 2+ goals
26%
Banga II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Be1 NFA (draw refunded)
75%
Banga II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Be1 NFA at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.06 · 66 matches

Banga II away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.12 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Be1 NFA attack 1.71 + Banga II defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.92

Banga II attack 0.95 + Be1 NFA defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Be1 NFA scores more
59%
level
22%
Banga II scores more
19%

Be1 NFA at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Be1 NFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Be1 NFA 4–0 Banga II

Be1 NFA beat Banga II 4-0 in 1 Lyga on August 9, 2024.

The match was played at Jonavos centrinis stadionas in Jonava.