Banga II 0–2 Be1 NFA: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Banga II

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Be1 NFA

3/17/2024

1 Lyga · Round 2Gargždų miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Banga II24%

×Draw24%

Be1 NFA52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Banga IIExpected goals in this matchBe1 NFA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.70

Banga II

1.09

Be1 NFA

1.70

Be1 NFA creates 56% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 68 away

1.14

creates per match

1.38

2.02

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Banga II

1.14

Be1 NFA

1.38

allows per match

Banga II

2.02

Be1 NFA

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Banga II+0.00on par

Be1 NFA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banga II ↓

Be1 NFA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Banga II or draw

48%

Banga II or Be1 NFA

76%

Draw or Be1 NFA

76%

Winning margin

Banga II wins by 2+

9%

Be1 NFA wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Banga II 1+ goals

66%

Banga II 2+ goals

30%

Banga II 3+ goals

10%

Be1 NFA 1+ goals

82%

Be1 NFA 2+ goals

51%

Be1 NFA 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Banga II (draw refunded)

32%

Be1 NFA (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banga II at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.02 · 43 matches

Be1 NFA away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.04 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banga II attack 1.14 + Be1 NFA defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09

Be1 NFA attack 1.38 + Banga II defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Banga II scores more

24%

level

24%

Be1 NFA scores more

52%

Be1 NFA at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Be1 NFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff