Be1 NFA 1–2 Babrungas: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Be1 NFA

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Babrungas

D. Sluta 74' (pen)

S. Abbey-Ashie 39'

B. Goupy 18'

4/4/2025

1 Lyga · Round 4Jonavos centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Be1 NFA41%

×Draw25%

Babrungas34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Be1 NFAExpected goals in this matchBabrungas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.36

Be1 NFA

1.52

Babrungas

1.36

Be1 NFA creates 12% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 79 away

1.71

creates per match

1.67

1.06

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Be1 NFA

1.71

Babrungas

1.67

allows per match

Be1 NFA

1.06

Babrungas

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Be1 NFA+0.00on par

Babrungas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Be1 NFA ↓

Babrungas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Be1 NFA or draw

66%

Be1 NFA or Babrungas

75%

Draw or Babrungas

59%

Winning margin

Be1 NFA wins by 2+

20%

Babrungas wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Be1 NFA 1+ goals

78%

Be1 NFA 2+ goals

45%

Be1 NFA 3+ goals

20%

Babrungas 1+ goals

74%

Babrungas 2+ goals

39%

Babrungas 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Be1 NFA (draw refunded)

55%

Babrungas (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Be1 NFA at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.06 · 66 matches

Babrungas away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.34 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Be1 NFA attack 1.71 + Babrungas defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.52

Babrungas attack 1.67 + Be1 NFA defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Be1 NFA scores more

41%

level

25%

Babrungas scores more

34%

Be1 NFA at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Be1 NFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

21'

27'

29'

39'

42'

45+3'

D. Butkus← K. Mantinis

46'

J. Ziedelis← P. Stankus

51'

O. Wardell

59'

E. Baguzas← Robinho

61'

J. Rakauskas← E. Kirliauskas

68'

S. Tomemori← L. Cepkauskas

68'

M. Skirmantas← E. Agyemang

68'

P. Massaquoi← B. Goupy

73'

A. Latakas

73'

T. Gutauskas← C. Cooper

73'

G. Barkauskas← O. Wardell

74'

D. SlutaPenalty

82'

S. Tabata

90'

D. Kublickas

Be1

Babrungas

99

Kublickas

2

⚽

Abbey-Ash

5

Latakas

7

⚽

▼

Goupy

8

▼

Mantinis

10

▼

14

17

18

22

▼

Cepkauska

55

▼

Agyemang

1

Mestrovic

2

Virbalas

4

▼

Stankus

6

Dziugas

8

⚽

Sluta

10

▼

Kirliausk

14

▼

Cooper

17

Turcinska

20

Issah

22

▼

Wardell

26

Adah

Manager: E. Pukys

46'▲J. Ziedelis←▼P. Stankus

61'▲J. Rakauskas←▼E. Kirliauskas

73'▲T. Gutauskas←▼C. Cooper

73'▲G. Barkauskas←▼O. Wardell

Be1 NFA substitutes

12Bublys7Rakauskas9Gutauskas11Barkauskas18Ziedelis21Shvedchenko23Gudaitis

Manager: K. Petkus

45+3'▲D. Butkus←▼K. Mantinis

59'▲E. Baguzas←▼Robinho

68'▲S. Tomemori←▼L. Cepkauskas

68'▲M. Skirmantas←▼E. Agyemang

68'▲P. Massaquoi←▼B. Goupy

Babrungas substitutes

3Barusas4Butkus9Tomemori11Skirmantas20Paulauskas21Massaquoi33Baguzas24Ukrinas