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Babrungas vs Be1 NFA — 1 Lyga 2026

Babrungas
Babrungas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
10/30/20241 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 26Plungės dirbtinės dangos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Babrungas43%
×Draw25%
Be1 NFA32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Babrungas
1.58
Be1 NFA
1.32

Babrungas creates 20% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 68 away

creates per match

Babrungas
2.12
Be1 NFA
1.38

allows per match

Babrungas
1.26
Be1 NFA
1.04

finishing

Babrungas+0.00on par
Be1 NFA+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Babrungas ↓

Be1 NFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Babrungas or draw
68%
Babrungas or Be1 NFA
75%
Draw or Be1 NFA
57%

Winning margin

Babrungas wins by 2+
22%
Be1 NFA wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Babrungas 1+ goals
79%
Babrungas 2+ goals
47%
Babrungas 3+ goals
21%
Be1 NFA 1+ goals
73%
Be1 NFA 2+ goals
38%
Be1 NFA 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Babrungas (draw refunded)
58%
Be1 NFA (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Babrungas at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.26 · 82 matches

Be1 NFA away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.04 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Babrungas attack 2.12 + Be1 NFA defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.58

Be1 NFA attack 1.38 + Babrungas defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Babrungas scores more
43%
level
25%
Be1 NFA scores more
32%

Babrungas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Babrungas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'
E. Mickevicius← D. Zevzikovas
75'
80'
J. Doke← J. Doke
90'
90+3'
D. Zevzikovas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Babrungas 0–0 Be1 NFA

Babrungas and Be1 NFA drew 0-0 in 1 Lyga on October 30, 2024.

The match was played at Plungės dirbtinės dangos stadionas in Plungė.