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Be'sat Kermanshah vs Pars Jonoubi JAM — Azadegan League 2025

Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League·2025
Be'sat Kermanshah
Be'sat Kermanshah
Preview
16:15
Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
Date
Jul 16, 2026, 4:15 PM
Tournament
Azadegan League · Regular Season - 34
45%
Pars Jonoubi JAM
model favours
20%35%45%

100% of Be'sat Kermanshah’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

0–0
likely score
80%
under 2.5 goals
27%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Be'sat Kermanshah20%
×Draw35%
Pars Jonoubi JAM45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Be'sat Kermanshah
0.56
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.99

Pars Jonoubi JAM creates 77% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Be'sat Kermanshah
0.56
Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.43

allows per match

Be'sat Kermanshah
0.56
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.57

finishing

Be'sat Kermanshah+0.00on par
Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Be'sat Kermanshah ↓

Pars Jonoubi JAM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–121%
0–210%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Be'sat Kermanshah or draw
55%
Be'sat Kermanshah or Pars Jonoubi JAM
65%
Draw or Pars Jonoubi JAM
80%

Winning margin

Be'sat Kermanshah wins by 2+
5%
Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Be'sat Kermanshah 1+ goals
43%
Be'sat Kermanshah 2+ goals
11%
Be'sat Kermanshah 3+ goals
2%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
63%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
26%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Be'sat Kermanshah (draw refunded)
31%
Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Be'sat Kermanshah at home — creates 0.56, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Be'sat Kermanshah attack 0.56 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.56

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 1.43 + Be'sat Kermanshah defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Be'sat Kermanshah scores more
20%
level
35%
Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
45%

Pars Jonoubi JAM at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pars Jonoubi JAM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Pars Jonoubi JAM are unbeaten in 8 straight
  • 82% of Pars Jonoubi JAM’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Pars Jonoubi JAM have won 3 in a row
  • Both teams score in only 18% of Be'sat Kermanshah’s matches
  • Their last 3 meetings averaged just 1 goals
  • Pars Jonoubi JAM score first in only 27% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Kermanshah
LLLLD
JAM
WWWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Be'sat Kermanshah vs Pars Jonoubi JAM — Match Preview

Be'sat Kermanshah face Pars Jonoubi JAM on July 16, 2026 in this Azadegan League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.