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BCV Glesch / Paffendorf vs Alfter — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
CANC
13:00
Alfter
Alfter
6/6/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 33Kunstrasenplatz Glesch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf34%
×Draw23%
Alfter43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.57
Alfter
1.77

Alfter creates 13% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 19 away

creates per match

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.40
Alfter
1.58

allows per match

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.95
Alfter
1.74

finishing

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf+0.00on par
Alfter+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf ↓

Alfter →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf or draw
57%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf or Alfter
77%
Draw or Alfter
66%

Winning margin

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf wins by 2+
17%
Alfter wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 1+ goals
79%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 2+ goals
46%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 3+ goals
21%
Alfter 1+ goals
83%
Alfter 2+ goals
53%
Alfter 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf (draw refunded)
45%
Alfter (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.95 · 42 matches

Alfter away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf attack 1.40 + Alfter defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.57

Alfter attack 1.58 + BCV Glesch / Paffendorf defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf scores more
34%
level
23%
Alfter scores more
43%

Alfter at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Alfter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf vs Alfter — Match Preview

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf face Alfter on June 6, 2021 in this Oberliga - Mittelrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf host Alfter at Kunstrasenplatz Glesch.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.