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Alfter vs BCV Glesch / Paffendorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Alfter
Alfter
CANC
13:30
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
2/28/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 16Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Alfter45%
×Draw23%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alfter
1.84
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.52

Alfter creates 21% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 44 away

creates per match

Alfter
1.68
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.50

allows per match

Alfter
1.55
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
2.00

finishing

Alfter+0.00on par
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfter ↓

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Alfter or draw
68%
Alfter or BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
77%
Draw or BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
55%

Winning margin

Alfter wins by 2+
25%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Alfter 1+ goals
84%
Alfter 2+ goals
55%
Alfter 3+ goals
28%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 1+ goals
78%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 2+ goals
45%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Alfter (draw refunded)
59%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfter at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfter attack 1.68 + BCV Glesch / Paffendorf defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.84

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf attack 1.50 + Alfter defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Alfter scores more
45%
level
23%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf scores more
32%

Alfter at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alfter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alfter vs BCV Glesch / Paffendorf — Match Preview

Alfter face BCV Glesch / Paffendorf on February 28, 2021 in this Oberliga - Mittelrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Alfter host BCV Glesch / Paffendorf at Waldstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.