Baztán vs Peña Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 26+ matches
Baztán29%
Peña Sport46%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Peña Sport creates 34% more chances
Season form · 26 home / 93 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Baztán ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Baztán at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches
Peña Sport away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 93 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Baztán attack 1.08 + Peña Sport defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16
Peña Sport attack 1.38 + Baztán defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.55
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Peña Sport at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Peña Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
PamplonaPeña Sport
Izarra
Subiza
San Juan
Huarte
Beti Kozkor
Avance Ezcabarte
Cortes
Cirbonero
Txantrea
Valle Egüés
Bidezarra
Aoiz
Ardoi
Beti Onak
Atlético Artajonés
OberenaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Baztán host Peña Sport on Saturday, 20 February 2021 at 15:30. The match is part of the Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Baztán vs Peña Sport
Peña Sport beat Baztán 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on February 20, 2021.
Goals: Andoni Goñi (19'), Mikel Olcoz (39'), Jon Ilincheta (45'), Asier Lizartza (64'), Iván Martínez (90+4').
The match was played at Paraje Gilxaurdi in Elizondo.