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Baztán vs Peña Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Baztán
Baztán
CANC
22:00
Peña Sport
Peña Sport
5/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 37Paraje Gilxaurdi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Baztán29%
×Draw25%
Peña Sport46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baztán
1.16
Peña Sport
1.55

Peña Sport creates 34% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 93 away

creates per match

Baztán
1.08
Peña Sport
1.38

allows per match

Baztán
1.73
Peña Sport
1.23

finishing

Baztán+0.00on par
Peña Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baztán ↓

Peña Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Baztán or draw
54%
Baztán or Peña Sport
75%
Draw or Peña Sport
71%

Winning margin

Baztán wins by 2+
11%
Peña Sport wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Baztán 1+ goals
69%
Baztán 2+ goals
32%
Baztán 3+ goals
11%
Peña Sport 1+ goals
79%
Peña Sport 2+ goals
46%
Peña Sport 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Baztán (draw refunded)
38%
Peña Sport (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baztán at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

Peña Sport away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baztán attack 1.08 + Peña Sport defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Peña Sport attack 1.38 + Baztán defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Baztán scores more
29%
level
25%
Peña Sport scores more
46%

Peña Sport at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Peña Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Baztán host Peña Sport

May 9, 2020: Baztán take on Peña Sport in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Baztán host Peña Sport at Paraje Gilxaurdi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.