Bayreuth vs Eintracht Bamberg — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 21+ matches
Bayreuth58%
Eintracht Bamberg19%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Bayreuth creates 96% more chances
Season form · 70 home / 21 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Bayreuth ↓
Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Bayreuth at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.11 · 70 matches
Eintracht Bamberg away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Bayreuth attack 1.93 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.84
Eintracht Bamberg attack 0.76 + Bayreuth defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.94
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 58%?"
Bayreuth at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 58% does not mean "Bayreuth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sample
Nürnberg II
Würzburger Kickers
SpVgg Unterhaching
Illertissen
Vilzing
Aubstadt
Eichstätt
Bayern München II
Wacker Burghausen
Ansbach
Buchbach
Memmingen
Schwaben AugsburgBayreuth
Greuther Fürth II
Augsburg II
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
Hankofen-Hailing
Kirchanschöring
ChamIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Bayreuth host Eintracht Bamberg on Friday, 12 April 2024 at 17:00. The match is part of the Regionalliga - Bayern 2019/2020 season.
Regionalliga - Bayern: Bayreuth 2–1 Eintracht Bamberg
Bayreuth beat Eintracht Bamberg 2-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on April 12, 2024.
Goals: J. George (45'), C. Fenninger (66'), F. Popp (90').
The match was played at Hans-Walter-Wild-Stadion in Bayreuth.