Bayreuth 2–2 Eintracht Bamberg: Result & Stats

Bayreuth

FT

2 – 2

Eintracht Bamberg

2/22/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Bayreuth Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bayreuth62%

×Draw17%

Eintracht Bamberg20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BayreuthExpected goals in this matchEintracht Bamberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.87

1.63

Bayreuth

2.87

Eintracht Bamberg

1.63

Bayreuth creates 76% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

3.23

creates per match

2.25

1.00

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Bayreuth

3.23

Eintracht Bamberg

2.25

allows per match

Bayreuth

1.00

Eintracht Bamberg

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayreuth+0.00on par

Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayreuth ↓

Eintracht Bamberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Bayreuth or draw

80%

Bayreuth or Eintracht Bamberg

83%

Draw or Eintracht Bamberg

38%

Winning margin

Bayreuth wins by 2+

42%

Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bayreuth 1+ goals

94%

Bayreuth 2+ goals

77%

Bayreuth 3+ goals

53%

Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals

80%

Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals

48%

Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Bayreuth (draw refunded)

75%

Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayreuth at home — creates 3.23, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Eintracht Bamberg away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayreuth attack 3.23 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.87

Eintracht Bamberg attack 2.25 + Bayreuth defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bayreuth scores more

62%

level

17%

Eintracht Bamberg scores more

20%

Bayreuth at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bayreuth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff