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Bayreuth vs Chemnitzer FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Bayreuth
Bayreuth
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Chemnitzer FC
Chemnitzer FC
T. Winklbauer 42'
N. Tanzer 89'
S. Mensah 52'
J. Marx 50'
7/16/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Hans-Walter-Wild-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bayreuth49%
×Draw21%
Chemnitzer FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayreuth
2.04
Chemnitzer FC
1.57

Bayreuth creates 30% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

creates per match

Bayreuth
3.23
Chemnitzer FC
2.14

allows per match

Bayreuth
1.00
Chemnitzer FC
0.86

finishing

Bayreuth+0.00on par
Chemnitzer FC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayreuth ↓

Chemnitzer FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Bayreuth or draw
70%
Bayreuth or Chemnitzer FC
79%
Draw or Chemnitzer FC
51%

Winning margin

Bayreuth wins by 2+
28%
Chemnitzer FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bayreuth 1+ goals
87%
Bayreuth 2+ goals
60%
Bayreuth 3+ goals
33%
Chemnitzer FC 1+ goals
79%
Chemnitzer FC 2+ goals
46%
Chemnitzer FC 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Bayreuth (draw refunded)
62%
Chemnitzer FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayreuth at home — creates 3.23, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Chemnitzer FC away — creates 2.14, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayreuth attack 3.23 + Chemnitzer FC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 2.04

Chemnitzer FC attack 2.14 + Bayreuth defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bayreuth scores more
49%
level
21%
Chemnitzer FC scores more
30%

Bayreuth at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bayreuth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
T. Winklbauer
50'
J. Marx
52'
S. Mensah
89'
N. Tanzer
Bayreuth
Chemnitzer
L. Kling
Manager: L. Kling
B. Duda
Manager: B. Duda

Match Recap: Bayreuth vs Chemnitzer FC

Chemnitzer FC beat Bayreuth 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 16, 2025.

Goals: T. Winklbauer (42'), J. Marx (50'), S. Mensah (52'), N. Tanzer (89').

The match was played at Hans-Walter-Wild-Stadion in Bayreuth.