Chemnitzer FC 1–0 Bayreuth: Result & Stats

Chemnitzer FC

FT

1 – 0

Bayreuth

8/1/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion an der Chemnitztalstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Chemnitzer FC46%

×Draw21%

Bayreuth33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chemnitzer FCExpected goals in this matchBayreuth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.71

Chemnitzer FC

2.04

Bayreuth

1.71

Chemnitzer FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

2.33

creates per match

2.63

0.78

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Chemnitzer FC

2.33

Bayreuth

2.63

allows per match

Chemnitzer FC

0.78

Bayreuth

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chemnitzer FC+0.00on par

Bayreuth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemnitzer FC ↓

Bayreuth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Chemnitzer FC or draw

67%

Chemnitzer FC or Bayreuth

79%

Draw or Bayreuth

54%

Winning margin

Chemnitzer FC wins by 2+

26%

Bayreuth wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Chemnitzer FC 1+ goals

87%

Chemnitzer FC 2+ goals

60%

Chemnitzer FC 3+ goals

33%

Bayreuth 1+ goals

82%

Bayreuth 2+ goals

51%

Bayreuth 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Chemnitzer FC (draw refunded)

58%

Bayreuth (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemnitzer FC at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Bayreuth away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemnitzer FC attack 2.33 + Bayreuth defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.04

Bayreuth attack 2.63 + Chemnitzer FC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chemnitzer FC scores more

46%

level

21%

Bayreuth scores more

33%

Chemnitzer FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chemnitzer FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff