Bayreuth 2–3 Aubstadt: Result & Stats

Bayreuth

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Aubstadt

11/7/2025

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 17Hans-Walter-Wild-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Bayreuth50%

×Draw23%

Aubstadt27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BayreuthExpected goals in this matchAubstadt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.29

Bayreuth

1.81

Aubstadt

1.29

Bayreuth creates 40% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 86 away

1.90

creates per match

1.49

1.09

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Bayreuth

1.90

Aubstadt

1.49

allows per match

Bayreuth

1.09

Aubstadt

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayreuth+0.00on par

Aubstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayreuth ↓

Aubstadt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Bayreuth or draw

73%

Bayreuth or Aubstadt

77%

Draw or Aubstadt

50%

Winning margin

Bayreuth wins by 2+

27%

Aubstadt wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bayreuth 1+ goals

84%

Bayreuth 2+ goals

54%

Bayreuth 3+ goals

27%

Aubstadt 1+ goals

72%

Aubstadt 2+ goals

37%

Aubstadt 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bayreuth (draw refunded)

64%

Aubstadt (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayreuth at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.09 · 68 matches

Aubstadt away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.73 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayreuth attack 1.90 + Aubstadt defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.81

Aubstadt attack 1.49 + Bayreuth defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bayreuth scores more

50%

level

23%

Aubstadt scores more

27%

Bayreuth at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bayreuth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff