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Aubstadt vs Bayreuth — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Aubstadt
Aubstadt
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Bayreuth
Bayreuth
3/9/2024Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 24NGN-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Aubstadt45%
×Draw24%
Bayreuth31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aubstadt
1.63
Bayreuth
1.30

Aubstadt creates 25% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 66 away

creates per match

Aubstadt
1.84
Bayreuth
1.62

allows per match

Aubstadt
0.98
Bayreuth
1.41

finishing

Aubstadt+0.00on par
Bayreuth+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aubstadt ↓

Bayreuth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Aubstadt or draw
69%
Aubstadt or Bayreuth
76%
Draw or Bayreuth
55%

Winning margin

Aubstadt wins by 2+
23%
Bayreuth wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Aubstadt 1+ goals
80%
Aubstadt 2+ goals
48%
Aubstadt 3+ goals
22%
Bayreuth 1+ goals
73%
Bayreuth 2+ goals
37%
Bayreuth 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Aubstadt (draw refunded)
60%
Bayreuth (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aubstadt at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.98 · 86 matches

Bayreuth away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.41 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aubstadt attack 1.84 + Bayreuth defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.63

Bayreuth attack 1.62 + Aubstadt defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aubstadt scores more
45%
level
24%
Bayreuth scores more
31%

Aubstadt at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Aubstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: Aubstadt 2–2 Bayreuth

Aubstadt and Bayreuth drew 2-2 in Regionalliga - Bayern on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at NGN-Arena in Aubstadt.