Baynounah SC 2–2 Al Arabi: Result & Stats

Baynounah SC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Al Arabi

1/29/2023

Division 1 · Round 19Al Arabi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Baynounah SC25%

×Draw21%

Al Arabi53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baynounah SCExpected goals in this matchAl Arabi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

2.09

Baynounah SC

1.39

Al Arabi

2.09

Al Arabi creates 50% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 100 away

1.38

creates per match

1.50

2.69

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Baynounah SC

1.38

Al Arabi

1.50

allows per match

Baynounah SC

2.69

Al Arabi

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baynounah SC+0.00on par

Al Arabi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baynounah SC ↓

Al Arabi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Baynounah SC or draw

47%

Baynounah SC or Al Arabi

79%

Draw or Al Arabi

75%

Winning margin

Baynounah SC wins by 2+

11%

Al Arabi wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Baynounah SC 1+ goals

75%

Baynounah SC 2+ goals

40%

Baynounah SC 3+ goals

16%

Al Arabi 1+ goals

88%

Al Arabi 2+ goals

62%

Al Arabi 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Baynounah SC (draw refunded)

32%

Al Arabi (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baynounah SC at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.69 · 16 matches

Al Arabi away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.40 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baynounah SC attack 1.38 + Al Arabi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.39

Al Arabi attack 1.50 + Baynounah SC defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Baynounah SC scores more

25%

level

21%

Al Arabi scores more

53%

Al Arabi at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al Arabi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff