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Al Arabi vs Baynounah SC — Division 1 2018

Al Arabi
Al Arabi
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Baynounah SC
Baynounah SC
9/17/2022Division 1Division 1 · Round 2Al Arabi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Al Arabi64%
×Draw20%
Baynounah SC17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Arabi
2.20
Baynounah SC
1.02

Al Arabi creates 116% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 16 away

creates per match

Al Arabi
1.65
Baynounah SC
0.69

allows per match

Al Arabi
1.35
Baynounah SC
2.75

finishing

Al Arabi+0.00on par
Baynounah SC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Arabi ↓

Baynounah SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Al Arabi or draw
83%
Al Arabi or Baynounah SC
80%
Draw or Baynounah SC
36%

Winning margin

Al Arabi wins by 2+
41%
Baynounah SC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al Arabi 1+ goals
89%
Al Arabi 2+ goals
64%
Al Arabi 3+ goals
37%
Baynounah SC 1+ goals
64%
Baynounah SC 2+ goals
27%
Baynounah SC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Arabi (draw refunded)
79%
Baynounah SC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Arabi at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.35 · 99 matches

Baynounah SC away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Arabi attack 1.65 + Baynounah SC defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.20

Baynounah SC attack 0.69 + Al Arabi defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Al Arabi scores more
64%
level
20%
Baynounah SC scores more
17%

Al Arabi at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Al Arabi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Arabi vs Baynounah SC

Al Arabi beat Baynounah SC 3-1 in Division 1 on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Al Arabi Stadium in Umm al-Quwain.