Bayern Munich W 3–0 Vålerenga W: Result & Stats

Bayern Munich W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Vålerenga W

P. Harder 58'

S. Ballisager 11'

M. Tanikawa 2'

12/17/2025

UEFA Champions League Women · League Stage - 6FC Bayern Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bayern Munich W54%

×Draw22%

Vålerenga W24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern Munich WExpected goals in this matchVålerenga W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.27

Bayern Munich W

1.99

Vålerenga W

1.27

Bayern Munich W creates 57% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 13 away

2.30

creates per match

1.77

0.78

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Bayern Munich W

2.30

Vålerenga W

1.77

allows per match

Bayern Munich W

0.78

Vålerenga W

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern Munich W+0.00on par

Vålerenga W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern Munich W ↓

Vålerenga W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Bayern Munich W or draw

76%

Bayern Munich W or Vålerenga W

78%

Draw or Vålerenga W

46%

Winning margin

Bayern Munich W wins by 2+

31%

Vålerenga W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bayern Munich W 1+ goals

86%

Bayern Munich W 2+ goals

59%

Bayern Munich W 3+ goals

32%

Vålerenga W 1+ goals

72%

Vålerenga W 2+ goals

36%

Vålerenga W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bayern Munich W (draw refunded)

69%

Vålerenga W (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern Munich W at home — creates 2.30, concedes 0.78 · 27 matches

Vålerenga W away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern Munich W attack 2.30 + Vålerenga W defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.99

Vålerenga W attack 1.77 + Bayern Munich W defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bayern Munich W scores more

54%

level

22%

Vålerenga W scores more

24%

Bayern Munich W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bayern Munich W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

M. Tanikawa

Bayern Munich W · M

9.5

Match Events

2'

M. Tanikawa↳ F. Kett

11'

S. Ballisager↳ L. Dallmann

33'

Linda DallmannPenalty confirmed

55'

58'

66'

66'

71'

A. Sehitler← L. Dallmann

71'

K. Naschenweng← C. Simon

78'

G. Gwinn← F. Kett

78'

N. Padilla← J. Damnjanovic

78'

A. Caruso← G. Stanway

83'

R. Aronsson← O. Tvedten

83'

M. Bergman-Lundin← L. Vickius

87'

Natalia Padilla-BidasGoal cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BayernVålerenga

Overview

78%Possession22%

26Total Shots4

14Corners2

4Fouls9

Shots

26Total Shots4

10On Target1

8Off Target0

8Blocked3

20Inside Box2

6Outside Box2

Passing

78%Possession22%

721Total Passes204

653Accurate Passes138

91%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

4Fouls9

1Offsides1