Bayern Munich W 3–0 Vålerenga W: Result & Stats

Bayern Munich W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Vålerenga W

S. Zadrazil 90+2'

G. Gwinn 17' (pen)

P. Harder 10'

11/12/2024

UEFA Champions League Women · Group Stage - 3FC Bayern Campus Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bayern Munich W54%

×Draw22%

Vålerenga W24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern Munich WExpected goals in this matchVålerenga W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.27

Bayern Munich W

1.99

Vålerenga W

1.27

Bayern Munich W creates 57% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 13 away

2.30

creates per match

1.77

0.78

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Bayern Munich W

2.30

Vålerenga W

1.77

allows per match

Bayern Munich W

0.78

Vålerenga W

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern Munich W+0.00on par

Vålerenga W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern Munich W ↓

Vålerenga W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Bayern Munich W or draw

76%

Bayern Munich W or Vålerenga W

78%

Draw or Vålerenga W

46%

Winning margin

Bayern Munich W wins by 2+

31%

Vålerenga W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bayern Munich W 1+ goals

86%

Bayern Munich W 2+ goals

59%

Bayern Munich W 3+ goals

32%

Vålerenga W 1+ goals

72%

Vålerenga W 2+ goals

36%

Vålerenga W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bayern Munich W (draw refunded)

69%

Vålerenga W (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern Munich W at home — creates 2.30, concedes 0.78 · 27 matches

Vålerenga W away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern Munich W attack 2.30 + Vålerenga W defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.99

Vålerenga W attack 1.77 + Bayern Munich W defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bayern Munich W scores more

54%

level

22%

Vålerenga W scores more

24%

Bayern Munich W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bayern Munich W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

G. Viggósdóttir

Bayern Munich W · D

8.3

Match Events

10'

P. Harder↳ K. Bühl

17'

G. GwinnPenalty

40'

Ylinn Tennebo

62'

R. Arnesen← E. Stølen Godø

65'

Janni Thomsen

74'

A. Şehitler← W. Zawistowska

79'

M. Sesay← S. Heiðarsdóttir

83'

J. Zigiotti Olme← L. Dallmann

90+1'

M. Doucouré← G. Gwinn

90'

C. Simon← K. Bühl

90+3'

L. Klech← Y. Tennebø

90+3'

T. Enger← K. Sævik

90+3'

T. Lindwall← O. Tvedten

90+2'

S. Zadrazil↳ A. Şehitler

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BayernVålerenga

Overview

76%Possession24%

15Total Shots7

9Corners0

7Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots7

9On Target1

4Off Target2

2Blocked4

7Inside Box6

8Outside Box1

Passing

76%Possession24%

706Total Passes226

629Accurate Passes155

89%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls12

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0