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Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs Mainz 05 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Bayer Leverkusen U19
Bayer Leverkusen U19
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Mainz 05 U19
Mainz 05 U19
3/21/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Bayer Leverkusen U1941%
×Draw22%
Mainz 05 U1937%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayer Leverkusen U19
1.93
Mainz 05 U19
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 75 away

creates per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19
2.62
Mainz 05 U19
2.40

allows per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19
1.26
Mainz 05 U19
1.23

finishing

Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par
Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayer Leverkusen U19 ↓

Mainz 05 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Bayer Leverkusen U19 or draw
63%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 or Mainz 05 U19
78%
Draw or Mainz 05 U19
59%

Winning margin

Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+
22%
Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals
85%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals
57%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals
30%
Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals
84%
Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals
54%
Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)
52%
Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at home — creates 2.62, concedes 1.26 · 69 matches

Mainz 05 U19 away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.62 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.93

Mainz 05 U19 attack 2.40 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more
41%
level
22%
Mainz 05 U19 scores more
37%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Bayer
Mainz
Kevin Brok
Manager: Kevin Brok
J. Kirchhoff
Manager: J. Kirchhoff

Match Recap: Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs Mainz 05 U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19 beat Mainz 05 U19 4-3 in U19 Bundesliga on March 21, 2026.