Bayer Leverkusen U19 0–0 Mainz 05 U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mainz 05 U19

K. Alajbegović 120+1'

A. Stepanov 99'

Raúl König 108'

4/27/2025

U19 Bundesliga · Championship - 8th FinalsUlrich-Haberland-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Bayer Leverkusen U1941%

×Draw21%

Mainz 05 U1937%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayer Leverkusen U19Expected goals in this matchMainz 05 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.83

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.94

Mainz 05 U19

1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 75 away

2.65

creates per match

2.40

1.26

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.65

Mainz 05 U19

2.40

allows per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.26

Mainz 05 U19

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayer Leverkusen U19 ↓

Mainz 05 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Bayer Leverkusen U19 or draw

63%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 or Mainz 05 U19

79%

Draw or Mainz 05 U19

59%

Winning margin

Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+

22%

Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals

86%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals

58%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals

30%

Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals

84%

Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals

54%

Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.26 · 66 matches

Mainz 05 U19 away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.65 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.94

Mainz 05 U19 attack 2.40 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more

41%

level

21%

Mainz 05 U19 scores more

37%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

I. Eichie← O. Raterink

66'

Raúl König← Mika Preßler

77'

F. Engel← S. Horozović

77'

J. Ugljanin← A. Latifi

97'

B. Hawighorst← A. Kister

99'

A. Stepanov

102'

L. Rahmann← T. Weileder

102'

Mats Preßler← S. Touré

108'

Raúl König

120+1'

A. Stepanov

120+1'

A. Stepanov

120+3'

J. Kurowski← K. Alajbegović

120+1'

K. Alajbegović

Bayer

Mainz

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Alajbegov

⚽

Stepanov

Manager: Sergi Runge

59'▲I. Eichie←▼O. Raterink

97'▲B. Hawighorst←▼A. Kister

120+3'▲J. Kurowski←▼K. Alajbegović

Bayer Leverkusen U19 substitutes

EichieHawighorstKurowskiOwenSchriefSzépGernhardt

Manager: J. Kirchhoff

66'▲Raúl König←▼Mika Preßler

77'▲F. Engel←▼S. Horozović

77'▲J. Ugljanin←▼A. Latifi

102'▲L. Rahmann←▼T. Weileder

102'▲Mats Preßler←▼S. Touré

Mainz 05 U19 substitutes

KönigEngelUgljaninRahmannPreßlerWegjanÖzçelik

U19 Bundesliga: Bayer Leverkusen U19 0–0 Mainz 05 U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19 and Mainz 05 U19 drew 0-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 27, 2025.

Goals: A. Stepanov (99'), Raúl König (108'), K. Alajbegović (120+1').

The match was played at Ulrich-Haberland-Stadion in Leverkusen.

Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs Mainz 05 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Bayer Leverkusen U19 0–0 Mainz 05 U19