Bayer Leverkusen U19 5–2 Alemannia Aachen U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19

FT

5 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Alemannia Aachen U19

K. Izekor 90+1'

K. Alajbegović 51'

A. Stepanov 45+2'

F. Onyeka 42', 20'

Arian Amyn 69', 55'

8/10/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 2Ulrich-Haberland-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Bayer Leverkusen U1966%

×Draw18%

Alemannia Aachen U1917%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayer Leverkusen U19Expected goals in this matchAlemannia Aachen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.59

1.25

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.59

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.25

Bayer Leverkusen U19 creates 107% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 60 away

2.65

creates per match

1.23

1.26

allows per match

2.53

creates per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.65

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.23

allows per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.26

Alemannia Aachen U19

2.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Alemannia Aachen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayer Leverkusen U19 ↓

Alemannia Aachen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Bayer Leverkusen U19 or draw

83%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 or Alemannia Aachen U19

82%

Draw or Alemannia Aachen U19

34%

Winning margin

Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+

44%

Alemannia Aachen U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals

92%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals

73%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals

47%

Alemannia Aachen U19 1+ goals

71%

Alemannia Aachen U19 2+ goals

36%

Alemannia Aachen U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)

80%

Alemannia Aachen U19 (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.26 · 66 matches

Alemannia Aachen U19 away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.65 + Alemannia Aachen U19 defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.59

Alemannia Aachen U19 attack 1.23 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more

66%

level

18%

Alemannia Aachen U19 scores more

17%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

F. Onyeka

42'

F. Onyeka

45+2'

A. Stepanov

46'

Arian Amyn← F. Türkmen

51'

K. Alajbegović

55'

Arian Amyn

60'

A. Kister← N. Mensah

60'

I. Eichie← K. Raterink

60'

K. Izekor← F. Onyeka

60'

M. Szép← A. Stepanov

60'

F. Brück-Thies← M. Fork

60'

M. Pobric← S. Sarar

69'

Arian Amyn

70'

M. Neuss← T. Kpegouni

77'

J. Luabeya← A. Eglenovic

78'

R. Petak← K. Alajbegović

83'

B. Ndi← N. Gernhardt

90+1'

K. Izekor

Bayer

Alemannia

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Onyeka

⚽

▼

Alajbegov

⚽

▼

Stepanov

Manager: Sergi Runge

60'▲A. Kister←▼N. Mensah

60'▲I. Eichie←▼K. Raterink

60'▲K. Izekor←▼F. Onyeka

60'▲M. Szép←▼A. Stepanov

78'▲R. Petak←▼K. Alajbegović

83'▲B. Ndi←▼N. Gernhardt

Bayer Leverkusen U19 substitutes

KisterEichieIzekorSzépPetakNdiSchlich

Manager: C. Wissing

46'▲Arian Amyn←▼F. Türkmen

60'▲F. Brück-Thies←▼M. Fork

60'▲M. Pobric←▼S. Sarar

70'▲M. Neuss←▼T. Kpegouni

77'▲J. Luabeya←▼A. Eglenovic

Alemannia Aachen U19 substitutes

AmynBrück-ThiesPobricNeussLuabeyaWolffSümbül

Match Recap: Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs Alemannia Aachen U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19 beat Alemannia Aachen U19 5-2 in U19 Bundesliga on August 10, 2024.

Goals: F. Onyeka (20', 42'), A. Stepanov (45+2'), K. Alajbegović (51'), Arian Amyn (55', 69'), K. Izekor (90+1').

The match was played at Ulrich-Haberland-Stadion in Leverkusen.

Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs Alemannia Aachen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs Alemannia Aachen U19