Alemannia Aachen U19 0–3 Bayer Leverkusen U19

Alemannia Aachen U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Bayer Leverkusen U19

A. Stepanov 83'

K. Alajbegović 67', 40'

10/19/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 9Sportplatz ESV Aachen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Alemannia Aachen U1922%

×Draw21%

Bayer Leverkusen U1957%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alemannia Aachen U19Expected goals in this matchBayer Leverkusen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

2.09

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.22

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.09

Bayer Leverkusen U19 creates 71% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 64 away

1.12

creates per match

2.20

1.98

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.12

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.20

allows per match

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.98

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alemannia Aachen U19+0.00on par

Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Aachen U19 ↓

Bayer Leverkusen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Alemannia Aachen U19 or draw

43%

Alemannia Aachen U19 or Bayer Leverkusen U19

79%

Draw or Bayer Leverkusen U19

78%

Winning margin

Alemannia Aachen U19 wins by 2+

9%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Alemannia Aachen U19 1+ goals

70%

Alemannia Aachen U19 2+ goals

34%

Alemannia Aachen U19 3+ goals

12%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals

88%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals

62%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Aachen U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Aachen U19 at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.98 · 58 matches

Bayer Leverkusen U19 away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Aachen U19 attack 1.12 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.20 + Alemannia Aachen U19 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Alemannia Aachen U19 scores more

22%

level

21%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more

57%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

K. Alajbegović

64'

L. Rashica← A. Eglenovic

64'

M. Neuss← T. Kpegouni

67'

K. Alajbegović

72'

E. Owen← M. Culbreath

83'

A. Stepanov

86'

B. Statovci← J. Luabeya

86'

R. Edun← D. Franzen

86'

I. Eichie← A. Natali

86'

N. Gernhardt← N. Mensah

89'

F. Türkmen← L. Braun

Alemannia

Bayer

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Wissing

64'▲L. Rashica←▼A. Eglenovic

64'▲M. Neuss←▼T. Kpegouni

86'▲B. Statovci←▼J. Luabeya

86'▲R. Edun←▼D. Franzen

89'▲F. Türkmen←▼L. Braun

Alemannia Aachen U19 substitutes

RashicaNeussStatovciEdunTürkmenPollmannHandanovic

Manager: Sergi Runge

72'▲E. Owen←▼M. Culbreath

86'▲I. Eichie←▼A. Natali

86'▲N. Gernhardt←▼N. Mensah

Bayer Leverkusen U19 substitutes

OwenEichieGernhardtKurowskiFeratiSchriefPetak