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Bayelsa United vs Akwa Starlets — NPFL 2019

Bayelsa United
Bayelsa United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Akwa Starlets
Akwa Starlets
R. Mizo 22'
D. Daga 90+2'
1/15/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 1Samson Siasia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Bayelsa United60%
×Draw24%
Akwa Starlets16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayelsa United
1.63
Akwa Starlets
0.69

Bayelsa United creates 136% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 60 away

creates per match

Bayelsa United
1.65
Akwa Starlets
0.52

allows per match

Bayelsa United
0.85
Akwa Starlets
1.60

finishing

Bayelsa United+0.00on par
Akwa Starlets+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayelsa United ↓

Akwa Starlets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bayelsa United or draw
84%
Bayelsa United or Akwa Starlets
76%
Draw or Akwa Starlets
40%

Winning margin

Bayelsa United wins by 2+
33%
Akwa Starlets wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bayelsa United 1+ goals
80%
Bayelsa United 2+ goals
48%
Bayelsa United 3+ goals
22%
Akwa Starlets 1+ goals
50%
Akwa Starlets 2+ goals
15%
Akwa Starlets 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Bayelsa United (draw refunded)
79%
Akwa Starlets (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayelsa United at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.85 · 66 matches

Akwa Starlets away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.60 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayelsa United attack 1.65 + Akwa Starlets defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.63

Akwa Starlets attack 0.52 + Bayelsa United defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bayelsa United scores more
60%
level
24%
Akwa Starlets scores more
16%

Bayelsa United at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Bayelsa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
R. Mizo
90+2'
D. Daga

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Bayelsa United 1–1 Akwa Starlets

Bayelsa United and Akwa Starlets drew 1-1 in NPFL on January 15, 2023.

Goals: R. Mizo (22'), D. Daga (90+2').

The match was played at Samson Siasia Stadium in Yenagoa.