Akwa Starlets 1–1 Bayelsa United: Result & Stats

Akwa Starlets

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bayelsa United

M. Udosen 15'

R. Mizo 4'

3/29/2023

NPFL · Round 11Nest of Champions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Akwa Starlets53%

×Draw27%

Bayelsa United20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akwa StarletsExpected goals in this matchBayelsa United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.77

Akwa Starlets

1.44

Bayelsa United

0.77

Akwa Starlets creates 87% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 66 away

1.48

creates per match

0.61

0.92

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Akwa Starlets

1.48

Bayelsa United

0.61

allows per match

Akwa Starlets

0.92

Bayelsa United

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akwa Starlets+0.00on par

Bayelsa United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akwa Starlets ↓

Bayelsa United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Akwa Starlets or draw

80%

Akwa Starlets or Bayelsa United

73%

Draw or Bayelsa United

47%

Winning margin

Akwa Starlets wins by 2+

27%

Bayelsa United wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Akwa Starlets 1+ goals

76%

Akwa Starlets 2+ goals

42%

Akwa Starlets 3+ goals

18%

Bayelsa United 1+ goals

54%

Bayelsa United 2+ goals

18%

Bayelsa United 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Akwa Starlets (draw refunded)

73%

Bayelsa United (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akwa Starlets at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 60 matches

Bayelsa United away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.41 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akwa Starlets attack 1.48 + Bayelsa United defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Bayelsa United attack 0.61 + Akwa Starlets defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Akwa Starlets scores more

53%

level

27%

Bayelsa United scores more

20%

Akwa Starlets at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Akwa Starlets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

R. Mizo

15'

M. Udosen

56'

58'

59'

79'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff