Bayanzürkh Sporting 1–4 Bavarians: Result & Stats

Bayanzürkh Sporting

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Bavarians

8/12/2023

Premier League · Round 2Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bayanzürkh Sporting54%

×Draw18%

Bavarians28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayanzürkh SportingExpected goals in this matchBavarians

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.92

2.13

Bayanzürkh Sporting

2.92

Bavarians

2.13

Bayanzürkh Sporting creates 37% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

1.15

creates per match

1.15

3.12

allows per match

4.69

creates per match

Bayanzürkh Sporting

1.15

Bavarians

1.15

allows per match

Bayanzürkh Sporting

3.12

Bavarians

4.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayanzürkh Sporting+0.00on par

Bavarians+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayanzürkh Sporting ↓

Bavarians →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–25%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

73%27%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

Bayanzürkh Sporting or draw

72%

Bayanzürkh Sporting or Bavarians

82%

Draw or Bavarians

46%

Winning margin

Bayanzürkh Sporting wins by 2+

35%

Bavarians wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bayanzürkh Sporting 1+ goals

94%

Bayanzürkh Sporting 2+ goals

78%

Bayanzürkh Sporting 3+ goals

55%

Bavarians 1+ goals

88%

Bavarians 2+ goals

63%

Bavarians 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Bayanzürkh Sporting (draw refunded)

65%

Bavarians (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayanzürkh Sporting at home — creates 1.15, concedes 3.12 · 26 matches

Bavarians away — creates 1.15, concedes 4.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayanzürkh Sporting attack 1.15 + Bavarians defence 4.69 → ÷2 → 2.92

Bavarians attack 1.15 + Bayanzürkh Sporting defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bayanzürkh Sporting scores more

54%

level

18%

Bavarians scores more

28%

Bayanzürkh Sporting at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bayanzürkh Sporting will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff