Bavarians 1–8 Bayanzürkh Sporting: Result & Stats

Bavarians

FT

1 – 8

HT: 0 – 3

Bayanzürkh Sporting

3/8/2024

Premier League · Round 11Mongolian Football Federation Training Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Bavarians14%

×Draw12%

Bayanzürkh Sporting74%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BavariansExpected goals in this matchBayanzürkh Sporting

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

4.46

Bavarians

2.04

Bayanzürkh Sporting

4.46

Bayanzürkh Sporting creates 119% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

1.29

creates per match

2.29

6.64

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Bavarians

1.29

Bayanzürkh Sporting

2.29

allows per match

Bavarians

6.64

Bayanzürkh Sporting

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bavarians+0.00on par

Bayanzürkh Sporting+0.00on par

Total goals

Over95
Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes86
No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bavarians ↓

Bayanzürkh Sporting →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–22%

0–33%

0–43%

1

1–00%

1–12%

1–24%

1–35%

1–46%

2

2–00%

2–12%

2–24%

2–36%

2–46%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–23%

3–34%

3–44%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–4 (6%) · grid covers 61% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

99%1%2.5

95%5%3.5

87%13%4.5

73%27%

Double chance

Bavarians or draw

26%

Bavarians or Bayanzürkh Sporting

88%

Draw or Bayanzürkh Sporting

86%

Winning margin

Bavarians wins by 2+

6%

Bayanzürkh Sporting wins by 2+

57%

Team goals

Bavarians 1+ goals

87%

Bavarians 2+ goals

60%

Bavarians 3+ goals

33%

Bayanzürkh Sporting 1+ goals

99%

Bayanzürkh Sporting 2+ goals

92%

Bayanzürkh Sporting 3+ goals

79%

Draw no bet

Bavarians (draw refunded)

16%

Bayanzürkh Sporting (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

84%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bavarians at home — creates 1.29, concedes 6.64 · 14 matches

Bayanzürkh Sporting away — creates 2.29, concedes 2.79 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bavarians attack 1.29 + Bayanzürkh Sporting defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.04

Bayanzürkh Sporting attack 2.29 + Bavarians defence 6.64 → ÷2 → 4.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Bavarians scores more

14%

level

12%

Bayanzürkh Sporting scores more

74%

Bayanzürkh Sporting at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Bayanzürkh Sporting will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff