Bay FC W vs Seattle Reign FC W

Bay FC W

Preview

00:45

Seattle Reign FC W

8/2/2026

NWSL Women · Group StagePayPal Park

37%

Seattle Reign FC W

model favours

36%27%37%

Seattle Reign FC W score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

54%

under 2.5 goals

52%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Bay FC W36%

×Draw27%

Seattle Reign FC W37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bay FC WExpected goals in this matchSeattle Reign FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.27

Bay FC W

1.26

Seattle Reign FC W

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 31 away

1.00

creates per match

1.13

1.41

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Bay FC W

1.00

Seattle Reign FC W

1.13

allows per match

Bay FC W

1.41

Seattle Reign FC W

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bay FC W+0.00on par

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bay FC W ↓

Seattle Reign FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bay FC W or draw

63%

Bay FC W or Seattle Reign FC W

73%

Draw or Seattle Reign FC W

64%

Winning margin

Bay FC W wins by 2+

16%

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bay FC W 1+ goals

72%

Bay FC W 2+ goals

36%

Bay FC W 3+ goals

13%

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals

72%

Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals

36%

Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bay FC W (draw refunded)

50%

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bay FC W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

Seattle Reign FC W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bay FC W attack 1.00 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.26

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.13 + Bay FC W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bay FC W scores more

36%

level

27%

Seattle Reign FC W scores more

37%

Seattle Reign FC W at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Seattle Reign FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
Bay FC W fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 2.2 expected)
Seattle Reign FC W fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Bay FC W

Attack-heavy

Seattle Reign FC W

Balanced

51%Possession47%

78%Pass accuracy77%

12.3Shots9.3

2.18xGBiggest gap1.51

Bay FC WSeattle Reign FC W

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

2

Bay FC W

2

Draws

0

Seattle Reign FC W

Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 75%

1–11–11–03–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

W

WDLLL

W

WLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff