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Bay FC W vs San Diego Wave W — NWSL Women 2025

Bay FC W
Bay FC W
Preview
22:00
San Diego Wave W
San Diego Wave W
11/1/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StagePayPal Park
Big match
45%
San Diego Wave W
model favours
29%26%45%

Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Bay FC W29%
×Draw26%
San Diego Wave W45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bay FC W
1.12
San Diego Wave W
1.46

San Diego Wave W creates 30% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

creates per match

Bay FC W
1.04
San Diego Wave W
1.48

allows per match

Bay FC W
1.44
San Diego Wave W
1.20

finishing

Bay FC W+0.00on par
San Diego Wave W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bay FC W ↓

San Diego Wave W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bay FC W or draw
55%
Bay FC W or San Diego Wave W
74%
Draw or San Diego Wave W
71%

Winning margin

Bay FC W wins by 2+
11%
San Diego Wave W wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Bay FC W 1+ goals
67%
Bay FC W 2+ goals
31%
Bay FC W 3+ goals
10%
San Diego Wave W 1+ goals
77%
San Diego Wave W 2+ goals
43%
San Diego Wave W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bay FC W (draw refunded)
39%
San Diego Wave W (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bay FC W at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.44 · 25 matches

San Diego Wave W away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bay FC W attack 1.04 + San Diego Wave W defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.12

San Diego Wave W attack 1.48 + Bay FC W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bay FC W scores more
29%
level
26%
San Diego Wave W scores more
45%

San Diego Wave W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "San Diego Wave W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bay FC W sit 14, San Diego Wave W 1 in the table
  • Bay FC W fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 2.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Bay FC W
Attack-heavy
San Diego Wave W
Balanced
48%Possession54%
78%Pass accuracy81%
12.5ShotsBiggest gap10.5
2.18xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Bay FC WSan Diego Wave W

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Bay FC W
0
Draws
3
San Diego Wave W
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 80%
1–01–21–21–32–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WDLLL
W
LWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bay FC W vs San Diego Wave W — Match Preview

Bay FC W face San Diego Wave W on November 1, 2026 in this NWSL Women fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bay FC W host San Diego Wave W at PayPal Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.