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Bay FC W vs North Carolina Courage W — NWSL Women 2025

Bay FC W
Bay FC W
Preview
20:00
North Carolina Courage W
North Carolina Courage W
7/18/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StagePayPal Park
Big match
39%
North Carolina Courage W
model favours
34%27%39%
1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Bay FC W34%
×Draw27%
North Carolina Courage W39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bay FC W
1.23
North Carolina Courage W
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 23 away

creates per match

Bay FC W
0.97
North Carolina Courage W
1.22

allows per match

Bay FC W
1.45
North Carolina Courage W
1.48

finishing

Bay FC W+0.00on par
North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bay FC W ↓

North Carolina Courage W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bay FC W or draw
61%
Bay FC W or North Carolina Courage W
73%
Draw or North Carolina Courage W
66%

Winning margin

Bay FC W wins by 2+
15%
North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bay FC W 1+ goals
71%
Bay FC W 2+ goals
35%
Bay FC W 3+ goals
13%
North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals
74%
North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals
38%
North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bay FC W (draw refunded)
47%
North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bay FC W at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

North Carolina Courage W away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bay FC W attack 0.97 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.23

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.22 + Bay FC W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bay FC W scores more
34%
level
27%
North Carolina Courage W scores more
39%

North Carolina Courage W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "North Carolina Courage W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Bay FC W
Balanced
North Carolina Courage W
Possession-dominant
49%Possession57%
77%Pass accuracy83%
11.6Shots11.7
1.07xGBiggest gap1.64
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Bay FC WNorth Carolina Courage W

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
Bay FC W
1
Draws
1
North Carolina Courage W
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 60%
3–11–41–01–01–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WDLLL
W
LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bay FC W host North Carolina Courage W

July 18, 2026: Bay FC W take on North Carolina Courage W in NWSL Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bay FC W host North Carolina Courage W at PayPal Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.