Bay FC W vs Kansas City W — NWSL Women 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 25+ matches
Bay FC W29%Kansas City W44%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Kansas City W creates 31% more chances
Season form · 29 home / 25 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Bay FC W ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Bay FC W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 29 matches
Kansas City W away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Bay FC W attack 1.00 + Kansas City W defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04
Kansas City W attack 1.20 + Bay FC W defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.36
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Kansas City W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Kansas City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Kansas City W
Washington Spirit W
Portland Thorns W
Orlando Pride W
Seattle Reign FC
San Diego Wave W
Racing Louisville W
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
North Carolina Courage W
Houston Dash W
Angel City W
Utah Royals WBay FC
Chicago Red Stars WIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Bay FC W host Kansas City W on Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 02:00. The match is part of the NWSL Women 2025/2026 season.
Bay FC W face Kansas City W (NWSL Women)
NWSL Women returns with Bay FC W hosting Kansas City W. Match starts September 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Bay FC W host Kansas City W at PayPal Park.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.