Bay FC W 1–3 Angel City W: Result & Stats

Bay FC W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Angel City W

T. Huff 56'

S. Jonsdottir 53', 3'

G. Thompson 32'

3/22/2026

NWSL Women · Group StagePayPal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Bay FC W34%

×Draw27%

Angel City W39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bay FC WExpected goals in this matchAngel City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.30

Bay FC W

1.19

Angel City W

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 24 away

1.00

creates per match

1.08

1.52

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Bay FC W

1.00

Angel City W

1.08

allows per match

Bay FC W

1.52

Angel City W

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bay FC W+0.00on par

Angel City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bay FC W ↓

Angel City W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bay FC W or draw

61%

Bay FC W or Angel City W

73%

Draw or Angel City W

66%

Winning margin

Bay FC W wins by 2+

14%

Angel City W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Bay FC W 1+ goals

70%

Bay FC W 2+ goals

33%

Bay FC W 3+ goals

12%

Angel City W 1+ goals

73%

Angel City W 2+ goals

37%

Angel City W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bay FC W (draw refunded)

46%

Angel City W (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bay FC W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 29 matches

Angel City W away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.38 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bay FC W attack 1.00 + Angel City W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Angel City W attack 1.08 + Bay FC W defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bay FC W scores more

34%

level

27%

Angel City W scores more

39%

Angel City W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Angel City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

S. Jonsdottir

Angel City W · F

9.3

Match Events

3'

S. Jonsdottir↳ K. Fuller

27'

Madeline Moreau

32'

G. Thompson↳ S. Jonsdottir

33'

Sveindís Jónsdóttir

46'

K. Barry← K. Lema

53'

S. Jonsdottir↳ E. Shores

56'

T. Huff↳ C. Girelli

65'

A. Denton← B. Courtnall

66'

C. Conti← A. Pfeiffer

78'

K. Hubly← J. Anderson

82'

S. Gorden← S. KIng

82'

T. Suarez← R. Tiernan

83'

90+7'

90+5'

90+2'

90+7'

90+6'

C. Lageyre← K. Fuller

90+1'

P. Chilufya← S. Jonsdottir

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BayAngel

Overview

49%Possession51%

13Total Shots15

0.75Expected Goals (xG)2.01

7Corners12

16Fouls22

Shots

13Total Shots15

3On Target4

7Off Target6

3Blocked5

8Inside Box10

5Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

293Total Passes305

211Accurate Passes233

72%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls22

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

3Offsides0

NWSL Women: Bay FC W 1–3 Angel City W

Angel City W beat Bay FC W 3-1 in NWSL Women on March 22, 2026.

Goals: S. Jonsdottir (3', 53'), G. Thompson (32'), T. Huff (56').

Angel City W controlled possession (51%) and registered 15 shots to 13.

The match was played at PayPal Park.

Bay FC W vs Angel City W — NWSL Women 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NWSL Women: Bay FC W 1–3 Angel City W