Angel City W 2–1 Bay FC W: Result & Stats

Angel City W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bay FC W

Maiara Niehues 77'

R. Tiernan 12'

R. Hill 37'

9/2/2025

NWSL Women · Round 18BMO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Angel City W42%

×Draw25%

Bay FC W33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Angel City WExpected goals in this matchBay FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.29

Angel City W

1.50

Bay FC W

1.29

Angel City W creates 16% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 28 away

1.44

creates per match

1.14

1.44

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Angel City W

1.44

Bay FC W

1.14

allows per match

Angel City W

1.44

Bay FC W

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Angel City W+0.00on par

Bay FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angel City W ↓

Bay FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Angel City W or draw

67%

Angel City W or Bay FC W

75%

Draw or Bay FC W

58%

Winning margin

Angel City W wins by 2+

21%

Bay FC W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Angel City W 1+ goals

78%

Angel City W 2+ goals

44%

Angel City W 3+ goals

19%

Bay FC W 1+ goals

72%

Bay FC W 2+ goals

37%

Bay FC W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Angel City W (draw refunded)

56%

Bay FC W (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angel City W at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.44 · 25 matches

Bay FC W away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angel City W attack 1.44 + Bay FC W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bay FC W attack 1.14 + Angel City W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Angel City W scores more

42%

level

25%

Bay FC W scores more

33%

Angel City W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Angel City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

M. Reid

Angel City W · D

7.9

Match Events

12'

R. Tiernan↳ M. Vignola

34'

37'

46'

47'

50'

59'

M. Moriya← G. Thompson

59'

Maiara Niehues← M. Hodge

63'

M. Moreau← A. Malonson

63'

K. Lema← R. Hill

72'

H. Bebar← J. Shepherd

77'

Maiara Niehues↳ M. Moriya

78'

D. Bailey← C. Conti

86'

C. Press← M. Vignola

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AngelBay

Overview

45%Possession55%

17Total Shots11

9Corners9

11Fouls17

Shots

17Total Shots11

4On Target7

11Off Target4

2Blocked0

15Inside Box5

2Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

315Total Passes397

237Accurate Passes296

75%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls17

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3