BATE II 2–2 ABFF U19: Result & Stats | 1. Division

BATE II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

ABFF U19

I. Kuimov 80'

A. Shvedchikov 23'

I. Gubarevich 56'

V. Pulkach 39'

8/29/2025

1. Division · Round 22Haradski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

BATE II44%

×Draw23%

ABFF U1932%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BATE IIExpected goals in this matchABFF U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.45

BATE II

1.73

ABFF U19

1.45

BATE II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 17 away

2.00

creates per match

1.24

1.66

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

BATE II

2.00

ABFF U19

1.24

allows per match

BATE II

1.66

ABFF U19

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BATE II+0.00on par

ABFF U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BATE II ↓

ABFF U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

BATE II or draw

68%

BATE II or ABFF U19

77%

Draw or ABFF U19

56%

Winning margin

BATE II wins by 2+

23%

ABFF U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

BATE II 1+ goals

82%

BATE II 2+ goals

52%

BATE II 3+ goals

25%

ABFF U19 1+ goals

77%

ABFF U19 2+ goals

42%

ABFF U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

BATE II (draw refunded)

58%

ABFF U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BATE II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.66 · 41 matches

ABFF U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BATE II attack 2.00 + ABFF U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.73

ABFF U19 attack 1.24 + BATE II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

BATE II scores more

44%

level

23%

ABFF U19 scores more

32%

BATE II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "BATE II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

R. Aliyev← P. Kolosovskiy

23'

A. Shvedchikov↳ I. Kuimov

39'

V. Pulkach↳ I. Verenich

46'

I. Gubarevich← V. Pulkach

56'

I. Gubarevich↳ M. Sakuta

63'

V. Kisel←

63'

V. Golovachenko← V. Orlovskyi

68'

G. Mishin

69'

Z. Shevchik

75'

N. Kolesnikovich← I. Verenich

77'

E. Chuevskiy← Z. Shevchik

77'

D. Vergeichik← A. Shkondin

80'

I. Kuimov↳ A. Shvedchikov

82'

D. Chergeyko← B. Gusev

85'

D. Chergeyko

87'

A. Poluyanov← A. Stanul

87'

V. Skomarovskiy← S. Zhivushko

90+1'

Y. Shumskiy

90+5'

D. Vergeichik

BATE

ABFF

1

Matysyuk

13

Mishin

23

⚽

▼

2

10

7

20

▼

Gusev

14

▼

Zhivushko

4

▼

Stanul

21

A

▼

Verenich

5

A

Sakuta

30

Klyakin

8

▼

Kolosovsk

22

Kuzmenok

23

⚽A

Kuimov

17

Osipov

21

▼

Orlovskyi

19

Shumskiy

15

▼

Shkondin

16

Charnykh

5

▼

Shevchik

18

⚽A

Shvedchik

9'▲R. Aliyev←▼P. Kolosovskiy

63'▲V. Kisel←▼—

63'▲V. Golovachenko←▼V. Orlovskyi

77'▲E. Chuevskiy←▼Z. Shevchik

77'▲D. Vergeichik←▼A. Shkondin

BATE II substitutes

13Kisel6Chuevskiy99Martinovich44Golovachenko4Vergeichik10Machnach14Gavrilov7Aliyev

Manager: S. Sosnovskiy

46'▲I. Gubarevich←▼V. Pulkach

75'▲N. Kolesnikovich←▼I. Verenich

82'▲D. Chergeyko←▼B. Gusev

87'▲A. Poluyanov←▼A. Stanul

87'▲V. Skomarovskiy←▼S. Zhivushko

ABFF U19 substitutes

9Gubarevich18Poluyanov17Galiakhmedov15Sheremet19Snapkov22Nalivayko11Chergeyko6Kolesnikovich24Skomarovskiy12Chuprinskiy

Match Recap: BATE II vs ABFF U19

BATE II and ABFF U19 drew 2-2 in 1. Division on August 29, 2025.

Goals: A. Shvedchikov (23'), V. Pulkach (39'), I. Gubarevich (56'), I. Kuimov (80').

The match was played at Haradski Stadium in Barysaw.

BATE II vs ABFF U19 — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: BATE II vs ABFF U19