ABFF U19 1–0 BATE II: Result & Stats | 1. Division

ABFF U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

BATE II

4/27/2025

1. Division · Round 5KFP Minsk Iskusstvennoe Pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

ABFF U1943%

×Draw25%

BATE II33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABFF U19Expected goals in this matchBATE II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.35

ABFF U19

1.57

BATE II

1.35

ABFF U19 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 42 away

1.35

creates per match

1.29

1.41

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

ABFF U19

1.35

BATE II

1.29

allows per match

ABFF U19

1.41

BATE II

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABFF U19+0.00on par

BATE II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABFF U19 ↓

BATE II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

ABFF U19 or draw

67%

ABFF U19 or BATE II

75%

Draw or BATE II

57%

Winning margin

ABFF U19 wins by 2+

21%

BATE II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

ABFF U19 1+ goals

79%

ABFF U19 2+ goals

46%

ABFF U19 3+ goals

21%

BATE II 1+ goals

74%

BATE II 2+ goals

39%

BATE II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

ABFF U19 (draw refunded)

56%

BATE II (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABFF U19 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

BATE II away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.79 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABFF U19 attack 1.35 + BATE II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.57

BATE II attack 1.29 + ABFF U19 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

ABFF U19 scores more

43%

level

25%

BATE II scores more

33%

ABFF U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ABFF U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff