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Bate Borisov vs Neman — Premier League 2018

Bate Borisov
Bate Borisov
Preview
15:00
Neman
Neman
8/1/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Borisov Arena
Big match
43%
Bate Borisov
model favours
43%26%32%

Neman score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Bate Borisov43%
×Draw26%
Neman32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bate Borisov
1.48
Neman
1.24

Bate Borisov creates 19% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 118 away

creates per match

Bate Borisov
1.81
Neman
1.36

allows per match

Bate Borisov
1.12
Neman
1.14

finishing

Bate Borisov+0.00on par
Neman+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bate Borisov ↓

Neman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bate Borisov or draw
68%
Bate Borisov or Neman
74%
Draw or Neman
57%

Winning margin

Bate Borisov wins by 2+
21%
Neman wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bate Borisov 1+ goals
77%
Bate Borisov 2+ goals
43%
Bate Borisov 3+ goals
19%
Neman 1+ goals
71%
Neman 2+ goals
35%
Neman 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Bate Borisov (draw refunded)
57%
Neman (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bate Borisov at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.12 · 113 matches

Neman away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.14 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bate Borisov attack 1.81 + Neman defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.48

Neman attack 1.36 + Bate Borisov defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bate Borisov scores more
43%
level
26%
Neman scores more
32%

Bate Borisov at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bate Borisov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bate Borisov score first in only 26% of matches
  • 69% of Neman’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 68% of Bate Borisov’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 31% of Neman’s matches
  • 44% of Bate Borisov’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Borisov
DDLLL
Neman
DDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bate Borisov vs Neman — Match Preview

Bate Borisov face Neman on August 1, 2026 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bate Borisov host Neman at Borisov Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.