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Bate Borisov vs Neman — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Bate Borisov
Bate Borisov
Canc
11:00
Neman
Neman
1/31/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Futbol'nyy Manezh CSK FC Vitebsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bate Borisov39%
×Draw31%
Neman30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bate Borisov
1.08
Neman
0.92

Bate Borisov creates 17% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Bate Borisov
1.33
Neman
1.00

allows per match

Bate Borisov
0.83
Neman
0.83

finishing

Bate Borisov+0.00on par
Neman+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bate Borisov ↓

Neman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bate Borisov or draw
70%
Bate Borisov or Neman
69%
Draw or Neman
61%

Winning margin

Bate Borisov wins by 2+
16%
Neman wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bate Borisov 1+ goals
66%
Bate Borisov 2+ goals
29%
Bate Borisov 3+ goals
10%
Neman 1+ goals
60%
Neman 2+ goals
23%
Neman 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bate Borisov (draw refunded)
56%
Neman (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bate Borisov at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Neman away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bate Borisov attack 1.33 + Neman defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

Neman attack 1.00 + Bate Borisov defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bate Borisov scores more
39%
level
31%
Neman scores more
30%

Bate Borisov at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bate Borisov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bate Borisov face Neman (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Bate Borisov hosting Neman. Match starts January 31, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bate Borisov host Neman at Futbol'nyy Manezh CSK FC Vitebsk.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.