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Bate Borisov vs Neman — Premier League 2018

Bate Borisov
Bate Borisov
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Neman
Neman
11/26/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Borisov Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Bate Borisov44%
×Draw25%
Neman31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bate Borisov
1.52
Neman
1.22

Bate Borisov creates 25% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 125 away

creates per match

Bate Borisov
1.87
Neman
1.35

allows per match

Bate Borisov
1.08
Neman
1.18

finishing

Bate Borisov+0.00on par
Neman+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bate Borisov ↓

Neman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bate Borisov or draw
69%
Bate Borisov or Neman
75%
Draw or Neman
56%

Winning margin

Bate Borisov wins by 2+
22%
Neman wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bate Borisov 1+ goals
78%
Bate Borisov 2+ goals
45%
Bate Borisov 3+ goals
20%
Neman 1+ goals
70%
Neman 2+ goals
34%
Neman 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bate Borisov (draw refunded)
59%
Neman (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bate Borisov at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.08 · 126 matches

Neman away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.18 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bate Borisov attack 1.87 + Neman defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.52

Neman attack 1.35 + Bate Borisov defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bate Borisov scores more
44%
level
25%
Neman scores more
31%

Bate Borisov at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bate Borisov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bate Borisov 3–2 Neman

Bate Borisov beat Neman 3-2 in Premier League on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Borisov Arena in Borisov.