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Bastia vs PAU — Ligue 2 2018

Bastia
Bastia
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
PAU
PAU
9/26/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 8Stade Armand-Césari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Bastia46%
×Draw27%
PAU27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bastia
1.42
PAU
1.03

Bastia creates 38% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 110 away

creates per match

Bastia
1.19
PAU
1.14

allows per match

Bastia
0.92
PAU
1.65

finishing

Bastia+0.00on par
PAU+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bastia ↓

PAU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bastia or draw
73%
Bastia or PAU
73%
Draw or PAU
54%

Winning margin

Bastia wins by 2+
22%
PAU wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bastia 1+ goals
76%
Bastia 2+ goals
41%
Bastia 3+ goals
17%
PAU 1+ goals
64%
PAU 2+ goals
28%
PAU 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bastia (draw refunded)
63%
PAU (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bastia at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.92 · 91 matches

PAU away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.65 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bastia attack 1.19 + PAU defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.42

PAU attack 1.14 + Bastia defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bastia scores more
46%
level
27%
PAU scores more
27%

Bastia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bastia vs PAU

PAU beat Bastia 4-1 in Ligue 2 on September 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Armand-Césari in Furiani.