Bastia 1–0 Grenoble: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Bastia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Grenoble

J. Sebas 44'

1/3/2026

Ligue 2 · Round 18Stade Armand Cesari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Bastia43%

×Draw29%

Grenoble28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BastiaExpected goals in this matchGrenoble

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.94

Bastia

1.24

Grenoble

0.94

Bastia creates 32% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 145 away

1.18

creates per match

0.94

0.93

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Bastia

1.18

Grenoble

0.94

allows per match

Bastia

0.93

Grenoble

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bastia+0.00on par

Grenoble+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bastia ↓

Grenoble →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bastia or draw

72%

Bastia or Grenoble

71%

Draw or Grenoble

57%

Winning margin

Bastia wins by 2+

19%

Grenoble wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bastia 1+ goals

71%

Bastia 2+ goals

35%

Bastia 3+ goals

13%

Grenoble 1+ goals

61%

Grenoble 2+ goals

24%

Grenoble 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bastia (draw refunded)

61%

Grenoble (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bastia at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 90 matches

Grenoble away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.30 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bastia attack 1.18 + Grenoble defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.24

Grenoble attack 0.94 + Bastia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bastia scores more

43%

level

29%

Grenoble scores more

28%

Bastia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

J. Placide

Bastia · G

7.9

Match Events

7'

13'

25'

29'

44'

60'

D. Basset← M. Petrignani

63'

Juan Guevara

69'

L. Mouyokolo← E. Sarikaya

69'

M. Bangre← T. Valls

76'

A. Aiki← J. Sebas

76'

I. Karamoko← A. Boutrah

77'

M. Mion← M. Xantippe

77'

A. Kerouedan← N. Zahui

81'

M. Bechikh← C. Vidal

90+5'

Florian Bohnert

90+1'

Gaëtan Paquiez

90+4'

V. Lebas da Silva← J. Janneh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BastiaGrenoble

Overview

42%Possession58%

11Total Shots17

1Corners4

22Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots17

4On Target6

3Off Target7

4Blocked4

8Inside Box12

3Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

307Total Passes413

223Accurate Passes324

73%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

22Fouls15

4Yellow Cards3

0Offsides6