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Bastia vs Grenoble — Ligue 2 2018

Bastia
Bastia
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Grenoble
Grenoble
L. Cissé 88'
C. Vincent 34'
E. Sylvestre 90+1'
A. Jabbari 77'
T. Valls 33'
4/25/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 32Stade Armand-Césari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Bastia43%
×Draw29%
Grenoble28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bastia
1.24
Grenoble
0.94

Bastia creates 32% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 145 away

creates per match

Bastia
1.18
Grenoble
0.94

allows per match

Bastia
0.93
Grenoble
1.30

finishing

Bastia+0.00on par
Grenoble+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bastia ↓

Grenoble →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bastia or draw
72%
Bastia or Grenoble
71%
Draw or Grenoble
57%

Winning margin

Bastia wins by 2+
19%
Grenoble wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bastia 1+ goals
71%
Bastia 2+ goals
35%
Bastia 3+ goals
13%
Grenoble 1+ goals
61%
Grenoble 2+ goals
24%
Grenoble 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bastia (draw refunded)
61%
Grenoble (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bastia at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 90 matches

Grenoble away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.30 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bastia attack 1.18 + Grenoble defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.24

Grenoble attack 0.94 + Bastia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bastia scores more
43%
level
29%
Grenoble scores more
28%

Bastia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
L. CisséBastiaBastia · F
7.9

Match Events

2'
Gustave Akueson
33'
T. Valls
34'
C. Vincent
57'
A. Roncaglia← G. Akueson
65'
A. Jabbari← N. Elphege
77'
A. Jabbari↳ S. Delos
78'
J. Maggiotti← C. Inao Oulaï
78'
F. Tomi← C. Vincent
78'
N. Zahui← J. Olaïtan
78'
E. Sylvestre← Y. Diaby
82'
Ayoub Jabbari
84'
M. Blé← J. Sebas
88'
L. Cissé↳ J. Maggiotti
90+3'
Dominique Guidi
90+3'
Shaquil Delos
90+1'
E. Sylvestre

Possession

67%Bastia

Shots

23Bastia

Pass accuracy

53%Bastia

Statistics

BastiaGrenoble
Overview
67%Possession33%
23Total Shots12
5Corners5
9Fouls11
Shots
23Total Shots12
8On Target6
5Off Target3
10Blocked3
12Inside Box7
11Outside Box5
Passing
67%Possession33%
531Total Passes271
471Accurate Passes215
89%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
9Fouls11
2Yellow Cards2

Ligue 2: Bastia 2–3 Grenoble

Grenoble beat Bastia 3-2 in Ligue 2 on April 25, 2025.

Goals: T. Valls (33'), C. Vincent (34'), A. Jabbari (77'), L. Cissé (88'), E. Sylvestre (90+1').

Bastia controlled possession (67%) and registered 23 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stade Armand-Césari in Furiani.