Bastia vs Caen — Ligue 2 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 90+ matches
Bastia44%
Caen28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Bastia creates 32% more chances
Season form · 90 home / 107 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under58
- Over42
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Bastia ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Bastia at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 90 matches
Caen away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.53 · 107 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Bastia attack 1.18 + Caen defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.35
Caen attack 1.10 + Bastia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Bastia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Estac Troyes
Le Mans
Saint Etienne
Rodez
Reims
RED Star FC 93
Annecy
Montpellier
PAU
Dunkerque
Guingamp
Grenoble
Clermont Foot
Nancy
Boulogne
LavalBastia
Amiens
RouenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Bastia host Caen on Saturday, 10 May 2025 at 15:00. The match is part of the Ligue 2 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Bastia vs Caen
Bastia beat Caen 2-1 in Ligue 2 on May 10, 2025.
Goals: D. Guidi (24'), I. Najim (28'), Z. Ariss (72').
Caen controlled possession (51%) and registered 4 shots to 27.
The match was played at Stade Armand-Césari in Furiani.