Bastia 1–2 Caen: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Bastia

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Caen

B. Santelli 33' (pen)

Alexandre Mendy 83' (pen)

H. Mbock 60'

1/23/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 21Stade Armand-Césari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Bastia44%

×Draw27%

Caen28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BastiaExpected goals in this matchCaen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.02

Bastia

1.35

Caen

1.02

Bastia creates 32% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 107 away

1.18

creates per match

1.10

0.93

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Bastia

1.18

Caen

1.10

allows per match

Bastia

0.93

Caen

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bastia+0.00on par

Caen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bastia ↓

Caen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Bastia or draw

72%

Bastia or Caen

73%

Draw or Caen

56%

Winning margin

Bastia wins by 2+

21%

Caen wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bastia 1+ goals

74%

Bastia 2+ goals

39%

Bastia 3+ goals

15%

Caen 1+ goals

64%

Caen 2+ goals

27%

Caen 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bastia (draw refunded)

61%

Caen (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bastia at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 90 matches

Caen away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.53 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bastia attack 1.18 + Caen defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.35

Caen attack 1.10 + Bastia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bastia scores more

44%

level

27%

Caen scores more

28%

Bastia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Alexandre Mendy

Caen · F

7.9

Match Events

23'

Hianga'a M'Bock

33'

B. SantelliPenalty

55'

60'

62'

64'

64'

C. Zady Sery← M. Autret

72'

G. Charbonnier← C. Vincent

72'

F. Tomi← F. Bianchini

72'

B. Brahimi← G. Kyeremeh

73'

M. Siby← A. Roncaglia

79'

D. Meddah← D. Debohi

81'

Gaëtan Charbonnier

83'

Alexandre MendyPenalty

84'

84'

90+1'

90+1'

90+1'

M. Loubatières← T. Ducrocq

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BastiaCaen

Overview

54%Possession46%

9Total Shots11

2Corners4

19Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots11

3On Target5

5Off Target4

1Blocked2

6Inside Box10

3Outside Box1

Passing

54%Possession46%

428Total Passes367

335Accurate Passes278

78%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1

Ligue 2: Bastia 1–2 Caen

Caen beat Bastia 2-1 in Ligue 2 on January 23, 2024.

Goals: B. Santelli (33' pen), H. Mbock (60'), Alexandre Mendy (83' pen).

Bastia controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade Armand-Césari in Furiani.

Bastia vs Caen — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Bastia 1–2 Caen