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Bassano Virtus vs Atletico Castegnato — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Bassano Virtus
Bassano Virtus
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Castegnato
Atletico Castegnato
F. Raicevic 54'
3/3/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 25Stadio Rino Mercante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bassano Virtus50%
×Draw26%
Atletico Castegnato24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bassano Virtus
1.50
Atletico Castegnato
0.95

Bassano Virtus creates 58% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bassano Virtus
1.30
Atletico Castegnato
1.06

allows per match

Bassano Virtus
0.83
Atletico Castegnato
1.71

finishing

Bassano Virtus+0.00on par
Atletico Castegnato+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bassano Virtus ↓

Atletico Castegnato →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bassano Virtus or draw
76%
Bassano Virtus or Atletico Castegnato
74%
Draw or Atletico Castegnato
50%

Winning margin

Bassano Virtus wins by 2+
25%
Atletico Castegnato wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bassano Virtus 1+ goals
78%
Bassano Virtus 2+ goals
44%
Bassano Virtus 3+ goals
19%
Atletico Castegnato 1+ goals
61%
Atletico Castegnato 2+ goals
25%
Atletico Castegnato 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bassano Virtus (draw refunded)
68%
Atletico Castegnato (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bassano Virtus at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.83 · 53 matches

Atletico Castegnato away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bassano Virtus attack 1.30 + Atletico Castegnato defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Atletico Castegnato attack 1.06 + Bassano Virtus defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bassano Virtus scores more
50%
level
26%
Atletico Castegnato scores more
24%

Bassano Virtus at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bassano Virtus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
F. Raicevic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Bassano Virtus 1–0 Atletico Castegnato

Bassano Virtus beat Atletico Castegnato 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on March 3, 2024.

Goals: F. Raicevic (54').

The match was played at Stadio Rino Mercante in Bassano del Grappa.