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Atletico Castegnato vs Bassano Virtus — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Atletico Castegnato
Atletico Castegnato
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bassano Virtus
Bassano Virtus
Pasenti 2'
L. Forte 22'
10/28/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 8Stadio Comunale Castegnato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atletico Castegnato31%
×Draw28%
Bassano Virtus42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Castegnato
1.08
Bassano Virtus
1.31

Bassano Virtus creates 21% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 53 away

creates per match

Atletico Castegnato
1.24
Bassano Virtus
0.92

allows per match

Atletico Castegnato
1.71
Bassano Virtus
0.92

finishing

Atletico Castegnato+0.00on par
Bassano Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Castegnato ↓

Bassano Virtus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Castegnato or draw
58%
Atletico Castegnato or Bassano Virtus
72%
Draw or Bassano Virtus
69%

Winning margin

Atletico Castegnato wins by 2+
12%
Bassano Virtus wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Atletico Castegnato 1+ goals
66%
Atletico Castegnato 2+ goals
29%
Atletico Castegnato 3+ goals
10%
Bassano Virtus 1+ goals
73%
Bassano Virtus 2+ goals
38%
Bassano Virtus 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Atletico Castegnato (draw refunded)
42%
Bassano Virtus (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Castegnato at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Bassano Virtus away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Castegnato attack 1.24 + Bassano Virtus defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.08

Bassano Virtus attack 0.92 + Atletico Castegnato defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atletico Castegnato scores more
31%
level
28%
Bassano Virtus scores more
42%

Bassano Virtus at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bassano Virtus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
Pasenti
22'
L. Forte

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Atletico Castegnato 1–1 Bassano Virtus

Atletico Castegnato and Bassano Virtus drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on October 28, 2023.

Goals: Pasenti (2'), L. Forte (22').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Castegnato in Castegnato.