Bashkimi Kumanovo vs Vardar Skopje

Bashkimi Kumanovo

Preview

15:00

Vardar Skopje

9/12/2026

First League · Round 7

41%

Vardar Skopje

model favours

32%26%41%

Bashkimi Kumanovo score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

52%

under 2.5 goals

53%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bashkimi Kumanovo32%

×Draw26%

Vardar Skopje41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bashkimi KumanovoExpected goals in this matchVardar Skopje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.40

Bashkimi Kumanovo

1.21

Vardar Skopje

1.40

Vardar Skopje creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 78 away

1.29

creates per match

1.14

1.65

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Bashkimi Kumanovo

1.29

Vardar Skopje

1.14

allows per match

Bashkimi Kumanovo

1.65

Vardar Skopje

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bashkimi Kumanovo+0.00on par

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bashkimi Kumanovo ↓

Vardar Skopje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bashkimi Kumanovo or draw

59%

Bashkimi Kumanovo or Vardar Skopje

74%

Draw or Vardar Skopje

68%

Winning margin

Bashkimi Kumanovo wins by 2+

14%

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Bashkimi Kumanovo 1+ goals

70%

Bashkimi Kumanovo 2+ goals

34%

Bashkimi Kumanovo 3+ goals

12%

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals

75%

Vardar Skopje 2+ goals

41%

Vardar Skopje 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Bashkimi Kumanovo (draw refunded)

44%

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bashkimi Kumanovo at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Vardar Skopje away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bashkimi Kumanovo attack 1.29 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Vardar Skopje attack 1.14 + Bashkimi Kumanovo defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bashkimi Kumanovo scores more

32%

level

26%

Vardar Skopje scores more

41%

Vardar Skopje at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Vardar Skopje score first in only 26% of matches
Both teams score in 73% of Bashkimi Kumanovo’s matches
Bashkimi Kumanovo win just 17% against the top half (vs 56% against the bottom)
Their last 3 meetings averaged just 1 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Kumanovo

LDDLW

Skopje

WLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff