Basel U19 3–2 Real Betis U19: Result & Stats

Basel U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Real Betis U19

A. Rexhaj 60' (pen)

G. Koloto 43'

C. Sow 28'

M. Navarro 17'

R. Marina 8'

10/22/2025

UEFA Youth League · Semi-finalsLeichtathletik Stadion St. jakob

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Basel U1942%

×Draw20%

Real Betis U1938%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Basel U19Expected goals in this matchReal Betis U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

2.10

Basel U19

2.23

Real Betis U19

2.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.80

creates per match

3.00

1.20

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Basel U19

1.80

Real Betis U19

3.00

allows per match

Basel U19

1.20

Real Betis U19

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Basel U19+0.00on par

Real Betis U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Basel U19 ↓

Real Betis U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Basel U19 or draw

62%

Basel U19 or Real Betis U19

80%

Draw or Real Betis U19

58%

Winning margin

Basel U19 wins by 2+

24%

Real Betis U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Basel U19 1+ goals

89%

Basel U19 2+ goals

65%

Basel U19 3+ goals

38%

Real Betis U19 1+ goals

88%

Real Betis U19 2+ goals

62%

Real Betis U19 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Basel U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Real Betis U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Basel U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Real Betis U19 away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Basel U19 attack 1.80 + Real Betis U19 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.23

Real Betis U19 attack 3.00 + Basel U19 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Basel U19 scores more

42%

level

20%

Real Betis U19 scores more

38%

Basel U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Basel U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

R. Marina↳ J. A. Morante

14'

M. Cuevas

17'

M. Navarro

28'

C. Sow

43'

G. Koloto↳ K. Trondle

47'

G. Ajdin

59'

J. N'Agoran

60'

A. RexhajPenalty

61'

R. Oya← A. Martin

68'

A. Gonzalez

69'

M. Kurtishi← M. Izunwanne

80'

A. Gonzalez← J. A. Morante

81'

K. Bandera← J. N'Agoran

83'

E. Boum Um← M. Correia

83'

84'

86'

89'

90+5'

90+2'

90+2'

M. Fanciulli← G. Koloto

Basel

Real

13

Gonzalez

2

⚽

Navarro

4

Cuevas

5

▼

N'Agoran

3

Roa

10

▼

Martin

16

Angel

8

▼

Funez

17

A

▼

Morante

9

⚽

Marina

21

Mantero

1

Hoch

2

▼

Correia

5

Ajdin

4

Akahomen

3

A

Trondle

6

Schafer

11

⚽

▼

Rexhaj

10

⚽

▼

Koloto

8

⚽

Sow

7

▼

Senaya

9

▼

Izunwanne

Manager: M. Cantaluppi

69'▲M. Kurtishi←▼M. Izunwanne

83'▲E. Boum Um←▼M. Correia

83'▲Y. Hansal←▼E. Senaya

90+2'▲J. Eglin←▼A. Rexhaj

90+2'▲M. Fanciulli←▼G. Koloto

Basel U19 substitutes

18Minder30Pecora12Eglin13Um14Fanciulli15Kurtishi16Hansal17Barbieri19Bralic

Manager: Dani Fragoso

61'▲R. Oya←▼A. Martin

80'▲A. Gonzalez←▼J. A. Morante

81'▲K. Bandera←▼J. N'Agoran

89'▲F. Batan←▼R. Funez

Real Betis U19 substitutes

1Klimek6Mora7Gonzalez11Oya14Macias15Batan18Atienza19Cordon23Bandera