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Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor — League #203 2026

Başakşehir
Başakşehir
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Trabzonspor
Trabzonspor
B. Yildirim 90'
E. Shomurodov 45'
D. Selke 22' (pen)
E. Muci 90', 77'
P. Onuachu 76' (pen)
Felipe Augusto 37'
11/24/2025League #203League #203 · Round 13Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Başakşehir36%
×Draw21%
Trabzonspor43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Başakşehir
1.80
Trabzonspor
1.98

Trabzonspor creates 10% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Başakşehir
2.00
Trabzonspor
1.80

allows per match

Başakşehir
2.17
Trabzonspor
1.60

finishing

Başakşehir+0.00on par
Trabzonspor+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Başakşehir ↓

Trabzonspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Başakşehir or draw
57%
Başakşehir or Trabzonspor
79%
Draw or Trabzonspor
64%

Winning margin

Başakşehir wins by 2+
18%
Trabzonspor wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Başakşehir 1+ goals
83%
Başakşehir 2+ goals
54%
Başakşehir 3+ goals
27%
Trabzonspor 1+ goals
86%
Trabzonspor 2+ goals
59%
Trabzonspor 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Başakşehir (draw refunded)
46%
Trabzonspor (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Başakşehir at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Trabzonspor away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Başakşehir attack 2.00 + Trabzonspor defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Trabzonspor attack 1.80 + Başakşehir defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Başakşehir scores more
36%
level
21%
Trabzonspor scores more
43%

Trabzonspor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Trabzonspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
M. SengezerBaşakşehirBaşakşehir · G
9.3

Match Events

9'
Festy EboseleCard upgrade
10'
Festy Ebosele
11'
K. Olaigbe← E. Visca
13'
J. Opoku← D. Turuc
16'
Christ Inao Oulaï
19'
Léo DuartePenalty confirmed
22'
D. SelkePenalty
31'
Ousseynou Ba
33'
Olivier Kemen
37'
Felipe Augusto↳ M. Eskihellac
45'
E. Shomurodov↳ O. Bulut
62'
B. Ozdemir← A. Harit
63'
E. Muci← T. Jabol-Folcarelli
73'
Oleksandr ZubkovPenalty confirmed
76'
P. OnuachuPenalty
77'
E. Muci↳ A. Batagov
81'
N. Da Costa← D. Selke
81'
B. Yildirim← O. Kemen
81'
O. Sahiner← U. Gunes
86'
O. Tufan← Felipe Augusto
90+11'
Ernest Muçi
90'
B. Yildirim↳ N. Da Costa
90'
E. Muci↳ A. Batagov

Possession

36%Başakşehir

Shots

9Başakşehir

Pass accuracy

45%Başakşehir

Statistics

BaşakşehirTrabzonspor
Overview
36%Possession64%
9Total Shots22
1.98Expected Goals (xG)3.20
1Corners10
15Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots22
3On Target12
5Off Target4
1Blocked6
7Inside Box15
2Outside Box7
Passing
36%Possession64%
244Total Passes433
175Accurate Passes382
72%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
8Saves0
-0.41Goals Prevented-0.41
Discipline
15Fouls11
2Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
0Offsides5

Match Recap: Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor

Trabzonspor beat Başakşehir 4-3 in League #203 on November 24, 2025.

Goals: D. Selke (22' pen), Felipe Augusto (37'), E. Shomurodov (45'), P. Onuachu (76' pen), E. Muci (77', 90'), B. Yildirim (90').

Trabzonspor controlled possession (64%) and registered 22 shots to 9.

The match was played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium in Istanbul.